By Claus Andersen
26. March 2020
240 min chart:
Last week: “Price action last week was a clear bear trend week. This week so far we traded sideways. Price has sold off so much that some will be looking to buy. That means bounces and short sellers taking profit. – Probably price will start rallying more the next week. But my guess is that it won’t last. Always in is short. Next major support prior highs at 8.200 ish.”
This week price testet selling strength and had the largest rally in one single day than I have ever seen. Nearly 11%. What will be exciting to see is the follow through. Will it be strong or not. So far the market has paused after the large rally. And that is just below 10.000. I would have been more bullish if the pause had been above 10.000 as a BOPBL. Now it looks more like the high of a trading range. A huge 2.000 point range between 8.000 and 10.000. I will look to buy some at the lows for the long term portfolio.
The push up was strong enough that we might get another high near 10.000 but it will be exciting to see what the market does as the news gets worse over the next couple of weeks.
15 min chart:
On the 15 minute chart the reversal pattern is nice and clear. We got a break of the trendline and a rally then followed by a retest of the low.
The Bears didn’t have the strength to push the market to a new low. Instead the market turned after a pattern the resembles a inverted head and shoulders pattern. The target for that pattern fits with 10.000 so no surprise there. Right now the bull channel is broken and the market has paused below 10.000 in a triangle pattern. Looks like it is trying to break below. But time will tell. I do not think the market has turned to AIL yet. Probably another test at bear strength before looking into that.
A bit more detailed analysis in the video below.
Support and resistance was adjusted in the latest YouTube video: